Want to sound artsy and educated at your Oscars viewing party? I’ve got you covered, with predictions for each award in bold, as well as my personal picks in italics.
Best Picture
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- The Irishman
- Parasite
- 1917
- Marriage Story
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Ford v Ferrari
The award for Best Picture is wide open this year, and maybe it’s my personal bias, but I think Tarantino’s supposed penultimate film takes the big one. This comes down to how the Academy wants to be perceived: do they want to appear artsy and promote a foreign language film with Parasite? Do they want to echo 2014’s Birdman win with the showy camerawork of 1917? Or, in the midst of #OscarsSoWhite backlash, do they want to “prove” their non-racist-ness with Jojo Rabbit, like with last year’s Green Book?
But, there’s also a trend of Hollywood-themed movies winning it all (2011’s The Artist), as well as the Academy awarding an overdue auteur like Tarantino (2006’s The Departed). My money is on the Academy falling in love with a movie about themselves – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood becomes Tarantino’s first Best Picture winner.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Renee Zelwegger, “Judy”
- Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
- Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
- Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
- Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Unfortunately, this one looks simple – Quentin Tarantino loves feet almost as much as the Academy loves impersonations of celebrities (just look at Rami Malek’s bucktoothed caricature of Freddie Mercury last year).
So with Renee Zelwegger winning for her portrayal of singer Judy Garland, Scarlett Johansson’s lovingly nuanced and human performance as an actress going through a divorce will go overlooked.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
- Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
- Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
- Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
If there’s anything the Academy loves as much as a biopic, it’s someone losing (or gaining) an unhealthy amount of weight. Plus, Phoenix’s performance as the Joker has a mystical aura as the spiritual successor to Heath Ledger’s Oscar-winning portrayal in The Dark Knight. (Don’t talk to me about Jared Leto). Phoenix is also extremely overdue to win his first Oscar.
But, I’m sorry, we’ve seen Phoenix as a mentally unstable loner before (see The Master, or You Were Never Really Here). What we’ve never seen is Leonardo DiCaprio pulling double duty as a stuttering, unconfident, hilarious drunk, and a savvy, screaming cowboy villain – all in the same performance. This is the best acted scene of 2019.
Best Director
- Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
- Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
- Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite”
- Sam Mendes, “1917”
- Todd Phillips, “Joker”
8 of the past 13 Best Director winners have also led to Best Picture, so this could be an early predictor of the final award. Similarly, this award is wide open between Tarantino, Joon-ho, and Mendes – but I’m sticking to the same logic I started with. Up until this point, Tarantino has only won Oscars for his screenwriting, but now the Academy will symbolically reward him for his career as a director.
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
- Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
- Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
- Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
- Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
After winning this award at the SAG, Critics’ Choice, BAFTAs and Golden Globes, Laura Dern is the best bet on another W. And it will be a worthy win, as she hilariously delivers Baumbach-scripted monologues and battles Ray Liotta in court.
But my vote would go to Florence Pugh, with easily the most charismatic performance of the five nominees As a character that easily could have dipped into annoying, Pugh was the chaotic and lovable standout of an A-list ensemble that included Dern.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
- Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- Joe Pesci, The Irishman
- Al Pacino, The Irishman
- Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This one’s a lock: with wins at every other major awards show, the “long overdue” narrative, and Pesci & Pacino stealing votes from each other, Pitt will secure his first acting Oscar. (Fun fact: he’s won as a producer for 12 Years a Slave).
And it will be well deserved: Pitt’s Cliff Booth is the most “Movie Star” level performance of the year, and he delivers genuine heartfelt moments with pure hilariousness in equal measure.
International Feature Film
- Poland, Corpus Christi
- North Macedonia, Honeyland
- France, Les Miserables
- Spain, Pain and Glory
- South Korea, Parasite
Parasite will win. As a local once told me in a Northwest Mississippi casino during a game of blackjack, “Oooooooweeeeee, I’d put the farm on that one!”
Original Screenplay
- Rian Johnson, “Knives Out”
- Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
- Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, “1917”
- Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
- Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin Won, “Parasite”
By now, you’ve probably noticed my Tarantino bias. But Parasite is a deserving winner here, with its clever twisting narrative and thematic subtext. With my prediction of it getting snubbed in Best Picture and Best Director, this is where Parasite gets its due in a major category.
Adapted Screenplay
- Steven Zaillian, “The Irishman”
- Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
- Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, “Joker”
- Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
- Anthony McCarten, “The Two Popes”
Zaillian’s work in making a three-and-a-half hour epic simultaneously feel intimate and historical should win here. But my gut says that the Academy will honor Gerwig’s screenplay after botching her Best Director nomination snub.
Animated Feature Film
- Toy Story 4
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- Missing Link
- I Lost My Body
- Klaus
It’s not smart to bet against Pixar here, with 7 of the past 12 winners in this category. Bet on them making it 8 of 13 here.
Film Editing
- The Irishman
- Ford v Ferrari
- Parasite
- Joker
- Jojo Rabbit
Similar to Zaillian’s screenplay masterwork, Scorsese’s longtime collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker should win here for crafting The Irishman into its exciting, engaging pace. But, with more obvious, action-packed editing usually taking the trophy, Ford v Ferrari is the (still deserving) likely winner.
Cinematography
- Roger Deakins, “1917”
- Robert Richardson, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
- Rodrigo Prieto, “The Irishman”
- Lawrence Sher, “Joker”
- Jarin Blaschke, “The Lighthouse”
After 13 straight nominations and 0 wins, Roger Deakins triumphantly won with 2017’s Blade Runner 2049. He is the clear choice here for another masterpiece in lighting the one-shot style of 1917.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- Bombshell
- Joker
- Judy
- Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
- 1917
Charlize Theron’s transformation into Megyn Kelly alone earns this win.
Original Score
- Little Women
- Joker
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
After the Golden Globes win, Joker is the best bet here to take it home. But special shoutout to 1917‘s stirring score that works perfectly with Deakins’ cinematography and Mendes’ camerawork.
Original Song
- “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
- “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
- “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough
- “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
- “Stand Up” from Harriet
With the other nominees being too kid-friendly and too obscure, this is the perfect chance for the Academy to honor Elton John.
Production Design
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
This one’s up for grabs, but my money’s on the Academy falling in love with the meticulously recreated streets of 1969 Los Angeles.
Sound Editing
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
This category is built for fancy war movies, and 1917 is the cream of the crop.
Sound Mixing
- Ad Astra
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This tends to be the same winner as Sound Editing, so my logical side says 1917. But I irrationally want Ad Astra to pull off the upset win in its lone nomination.
Visual Effects
- Avengers: Endgame
- The Irishman
- The Lion King
- 1917
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I figure the Academy will continue to recognize the technical feats of 1917 – but how awesome would it be for Endgame to win here?
{SPEED ROUND: I know nothing about the below nominees. Enjoy my guesses and picks, based off of a combination of coin flips and picking my favorite names.}
Documentary Feature
- American Factory
- The Edge of Democracy
- Honeyland
- For Sama
- The Cave
Animated Short Film
- Daughter
- Hair Love
- Kitbull
- Memorable
- Sister
Live Action Short
- Brotherhood
- Nefta Football Club
- The Neighbors’ Window
- Saria
- Sister
Documentary Short
- In the Absence
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
- Life Overtakes Me
- St. Louis Superman
- Walk Run Cha-Cha
How do you think I did? Thanks for reading, and good luck on your picks!
Uncut Movie Reviews 